News-Augmented GARCH model: Theoretical properties and simulation-based hyperparameter analysis
Articles
Diana Vereškaitė
Vilnius University image/svg+xml
https://orcid.org/0009-0000-0382-9162
Jurgita Markevičiūtė
Vilnius University image/svg+xml
Andrius Buteikis
Vilnius University image/svg+xml
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1723-6004
Published 2026-05-26
https://doi.org/10.15388/namc.2026.31.47080
PDF

Keywords

volatility prediction
GARCH
news sentiment
asymmetry
stability condition
simulation study

How to Cite

Vereškaitė, D., Markevičiūtė, J. and Buteikis, A. (2026) “News-Augmented GARCH model: Theoretical properties and simulation-based hyperparameter analysis”, Nonlinear Analysis: Modelling and Control, 31, pp. 1–24. doi:10.15388/namc.2026.31.47080.

Abstract

Volatility is a key measure of financial risk, and GARCH models are widely used to describe its dynamics. However, they do not account for the influence of news sentiment, which can significantly shape market volatility. Recently proposed News-Augmented GARCH model addresses it by incorporating sentiment signals in a nonlinear, asymmetric, and multiplicative form. This paper examines its theoretical properties and performs a simulation-based hyperparameter study. The analysis establishes the existence of a unique and causal solution, derives a stability condition, and evaluates model sensitivity and parameter recovery under controlled scenarios. Results demonstrate robust performance across various settings and provide guidance for informed hyperparameter selection and evaluation, enhancing model’s reliability for empirical applications.

PDF

References

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Most read articles by the same author(s)